Pierre Rousseaux

I am currently a second year PhD candidate at CREST (Ecole Polytechnique, ENSAE) supervised by Prof. Roland Rathelot and Prof. Arne Uhlendorff. I am also a research affiliate at IPP.

During my first year I was a research economist at the Institut des Politiques Publiques (CREST, Paris School of Economics) in its labor market division.

My research focuses on labor economics, econometrics and policy evaluation. I also study research questions in international trade.

More precisely, my research in labor economics focuses on job seekers’ search behavior, unemployment insurance (its effects on job seekers' search mechanisms, workers, and its design), and information frictions in the hiring process. My research in trade economics aims to identify trade dependencies in global value chains, understand their evolution, and assess the risks they pose to the European economy. I also provide research consultancy to the European Investment Bank on trade-related issues, especially trade dependencies, the risks they entail, and how they shape intra-EU trade.

I am the director, founder and editor in chief of Oeconomicus, an online journal that promotes the results of economic research, makes it accessible to public debate, and brings together actors of the academic community and institutions to enhance the understanding of (research in) economics.

Contact me by mail pierre.rousseaux@ensae.fr/pierre.rousseaux@polytechnique.edu

or follow my research and activities on...

New publications ! (see below for quick summaries of each)

"Réforme du salaire journalier de référence et trajectoires professionnelles", 2025, with Fontaine, F. and M. To, in Rapport du comité d’évaluation de la réforme de l’assurance chômage 2019-2021, French Ministry of Labor; See the summary!
A review of EU trade dependencies, 2025, in the EIB (European Investment Bank) flagship investment report 2024/2025

New Media

L’économie au service de la planète : comprendre, agir, évaluer , Cité de l'Economie, March 21, 2025
Et si ma banque faisait faillite ? Entre mythe, réalité et protections modernes, Cité de l'Economie, February 7, 2025
Strengthening the European Union’s economic resilience: How to address trade dependencies?, CREST, CRESTive Columns, September 9, 2024

Past Events

Organizer, moderator of the conference “Face à la transition climatique, y'a-t-il une transition du travail ?” as part of the Citéco (Cité de l’Économie, museum) Cultural Season on Work, on March 22, 2025 (Replay) with François Fontaine, Anne-Juliette Lecourt and Nathalie Moncel.
Moderator of the conference “Des consommateurs sous influence ? L'impact des politiques publiques incitatives sur le comportement des ménages” for the Citéco and French central bank, on March 20, 2025 (Replay) with Nicolas Jacquement and Pascale Hébel.
Organizer, moderator of the conference “Travailler à l'heure du numérique et de l'IA” as part of the Citéco (Cité de l’Économie, museum) Cultural Season on Work, on March 8, 2025 with Salima Benhamou and Malo Mofakhami.

New publication !

"Réforme du salaire journalier de référence et trajectoires professionnelles", 2025, with Fontaine, F. and M. To, in Rapport du comité d’évaluation de la réforme de l’assurance chômage 2019-2021, French Ministry of Labor; See the summary!

Abstract: This study evaluates the impact of the October 2021 reform to the French unemployment insurance system, which modified the computation of the daily reference wage. The reform reduced daily benefit amounts (0--10\%) while extending potential benefit duration (up to +75\%) for job seekers with fragmented careers (alternating periods of employment and non-employment). Using a difference-in-differences approach on administrative data, we exploit heterogeneity in exposure - measured by the share of non-employment time during the reference period. For the most affected individuals (50\%+ non-employment), the reform lowered benefit levels, extended entitlements, and led to a 5--20\% increase in employment days in the six months post-unemployment. Employment-to-benefit elasticities range from -0.5 to -0.9. The reform reduced UI take-up by 2pp but had no effect on contract type, wage, or mobility. It did not trigger substitution toward welfare transfers (e.g. RSA), limiting fiscal impact to the UI system. Among UI recipients, cumulative benefits declined by up to €1,000 over six months.

VR n°16_réforme assurance chômage_SJR et trajectoires pro_synthèse.pdf

New Paper !

Check here to see a page dedicated to trade vulnerabilities (methodologies, EU analysis, EU-country analysis)

A review of EU trade dependencies, 2025, in the EIB (European Investment Bank) flagship investment report 2024/2025

Abstract: This contribution analyzes EU trade vulnerabilities since 2002 by identifying critical imported products and their role in value chains. Using the European Commission’s method combined with Mejean and Rousseaux (2024), it documents increasing reliance on specific suppliers - especially China - while dependencies on the US and other countries have declined. The most critical products lie upstream, with 49\% more than three stages from final use, amplifying the impact of disruptions. Vulnerabilities are concentrated in strategic sectors like chemicals, metals, and ceramics, and persist over time: 41\% of those seen pre-crisis remained just after, and 35\% in later periods. While some concern low-risk consumer goods, others involve essential industrial inputs with systemic risks. The study calls for a balanced resilience strategy, combining diversification, local production, and industrial coordination to secure supply chains without undermining trade efficiency.

Evolution of trade dependencies imported by the EU27 between 2002 and 2022, by methodologies.

Source: EIB Investment Report 2024/2025, Chapter 5, Box C (P. Rousseaux)

Identifying European trade dependencies, 2024, with I. Mejean; in Pisani-Ferry, J, B Weder Di Mauro and J Zettelmeyer (eds), Paris Report 2: Europe's Economic Security, CEPR Press, Paris & London.

CEPR Bruegel Paris Report, Reports webpage, CEPR's Paris Symposium 2023

Media: Bruegel's podcast, VOXeu Column, CRESTive Columns

Seminar: Seminar: CEPII-Banque de France Competitiveness Seminar

Abstract: We review and extend upon existing literature using product-level trade data to identify trade dependencies that expose the European Union to potential disruptions. While acknowledging the significance of concentrated foreign input sourcing as a source of vulnerability, a comprehensive assessment of vulnerabilities should also consider the potential for substituting away from disrupted input sources, both domestically and abroad. This may necessitate devising novel statistical measures at the European level. We present a novel methodology that identifies trade dependencies by integrating these substitution sources. Our review encompasses normative arguments justifying public interventions to improve the resilience of value chains. We intersect our identified dependencies with a measure of geopolitical risk, their upstreamness in the value chain, and also focus on critical products and strategic green technologies. The specific targeting of these policies varies depending on the nature of risks they aim to mitigate. Finally, we discuss the range of policy tools available for crafting a resilience policy.

This figure sequentially shows how our additional criteria impact the set of vulnerabilities imported by the EU. Beginning with 5,381 products imported by the consolidated EU from 2015-2019 (we aggregate trade and production data to focus on persistent dependencies), the European Commission's three criteria (from its "bottom-up approach") identify 378 vulnerable products. Restricting the set to products for which 50% of domestic absorption is satisfied by extra-EU imports reduces it to 228 products. Finally, by considering ex-post substitutability in the event of a shock affecting these products, we identify 49 strategic dependencies after narrowing down to those (among the 228) with very low substitutability between suppliers. This last set of vulnerabilities accounts for 0.5% of the EU's total imports.