Research

(Selected) Work in Progress

• Gender differences in the impact of unemployment benefits: Evidence from a RKD in France, with A. Ferey, F. Meluzzi and A. Uhlendorff

• How does Unemployment Insurance (UI) affect the intensity and selectivity of job search? 

• Effects of Providing Skills Information on Hiring and Job Search, with R. Rathelot

• How do EU trade dependencies shape intra-EU trade?, with L. Maurin and P. Harasztosi

• Indirect risk channels in European trade

Non-academic publications

• "Réforme du salaire journalier de référence et trajectoires professionnelles", 2025, with Fontaine, F. and M. To, in Rapport du comité d’évaluation de la réforme de l’assurance chômage 2019-2021, French Ministry of Labor; See the summary!

Abstract: This study evaluates the impact of the October 2021 reform to the French unemployment insurance system, which modified the computation of the daily reference wage. The reform reduced daily benefit amounts (0--10\%) while extending potential benefit duration (up to +75\%) for job seekers with fragmented careers (alternating periods of employment and non-employment). Using a difference-in-differences approach on administrative data, we exploit heterogeneity in exposure - measured by the share of non-employment time during the reference period. For the most affected individuals (50\%+ non-employment), the reform lowered benefit levels, extended entitlements, and led to a 5--20\% increase in employment days in the six months post-unemployment. Employment-to-benefit elasticities range from -0.5 to -0.9. The reform reduced UI take-up by 2pp but had no effect on contract type, wage, or mobility. It did not trigger substitution toward welfare transfers (e.g. RSA), limiting fiscal impact to the UI system. Among UI recipients, cumulative benefits declined by up to €1,000 over six months.

• A review of EU trade dependencies, 2025, in the EIB (European Investment Bank) flagship investment report 2024/2025

Abstract: This contribution analyzes EU trade vulnerabilities since 2002 by identifying critical imported products and their role in value chains. Using the European Commission’s method combined with Mejean and Rousseaux (2024), it documents increasing reliance on specific suppliers - especially China - while dependencies on the US and other countries have declined. The most critical products lie upstream, with 49\% more than three stages from final use, amplifying the impact of disruptions. Vulnerabilities are concentrated in strategic sectors like chemicals, metals, and ceramics, and persist over time: 41\% of those seen pre-crisis remained just after, and 35\% in later periods. While some concern low-risk consumer goods, others involve essential industrial inputs with systemic risks. The study calls for a balanced resilience strategy, combining diversification, local production, and industrial coordination to secure supply chains without undermining trade efficiency.

• Identifying European trade dependencies, 2024, with I. Mejean; in Pisani-Ferry, J, B Weder Di Mauro and J Zettelmeyer (eds), Paris Report 2: Europe's Economic Security, CEPR Press, Paris & London.

CEPR Bruegel Paris Report, Reports webpage,  CEPR's Paris Symposium 2023

Media: Bruegel's podcast, VOXeu Column, CRESTive Columns

Seminar: CEPII-Banque de France Competitiveness Seminar

Abstract: We review and extend upon existing literature using product-level trade data to identify trade dependencies that expose the European Union to potential disruptions. While acknowledging the  significance of concentrated foreign input sourcing as a source of vulnerability, a comprehensive assessment of vulnerabilities should also consider the potential for substituting away from disrupted  input sources, both domestically and abroad. This may necessitate devising novel statistical measures at the European level. We present a novel methodology that identifies trade dependencies  by integrating these substitution sources. Our review encompasses normative arguments justifying  public interventions to improve the resilience of value chains. We intersect our identified dependencies with a measure of geopolitical risk, their upstreamness in the value chain, and also focus  on critical products and strategic green technologies. The specific targeting of these policies varies depending on the nature of risks they aim to mitigate. Finally, we discuss the range of policy tools available for crafting a resilience policy.

• Quel est l'impact économique de l'accueil des réfugiés ?, 2021, with E.  Auriol and M. Péron, Focus du Conseil d'Analyse Economique, 70