Research
Labour Economics · Public Economics · Applied Microeconomics · International Trade
Job Market Paper
Inside the Unemployment Duration Elasticity: How Job Search Responds to Benefit Duration
JOB MARKET PAPER
Abstract
I study how unemployment benefit duration shapes the timing, intensity, and direction of job search, and how these responses translate into re-employment. I combine a sharp 25% reduction in potential benefit duration in France with exhaustive administrative data on job applications and re-employment. I first show that declining raw profiles of search and the re-employment hazard partly reflect dynamic selection: once permanent worker heterogeneity is removed, both search intensity and the hazard rise over the unemployment spell and peak at benefit exhaustion. I then exploit the reform to show that a shorter horizon reallocates search toward the new exhaustion date and broadens occupational and geographic search without increasing cumulative applications or worsening subsequent matches. Finally, a standard forward-looking job-search model calibrated on pre-reform behaviour reproduces both within-spell dynamics and the causal response to the reform, reconciling search and hazard profiles without requiring present bias, reference dependence, or other behavioural mechanisms used in the literature.
Presented at: CREST PhD Seminar (11/2025) · Sciences Po Reading Group (11/2025) · IAB Workshop on Perspectives on (Un-)Employment (01/2026) · LSE Applied Economics Seminar (02/2026) · LSE Internal Public Economics Seminar (02/2026) · LSE Labour Economics Seminar (05/2026) · HEC PhD Conference (06/2026)
Upcoming: ELMI BIR Conference (10/2026)
Paper — coming soonSlides — coming soon
Working Papers & Drafts
DRAFT COMING SOONGender Differences in the Impact of Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from a Regression Kink Design in France
with A. Ferey, F. Meluzzi and A. Uhlendorff
Abstract
This paper shows the existence of gender differences in the impact of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on unemployment duration. Leveraging a kink in the relationship between previous earnings and UI benefits in the French UI system, we estimate that a 1% increase in the amount of UI benefits leads on average to a 0.9 to 2.0% increase in unemployment duration. However, this average effect masks an important heterogeneity across gender: we find strong positive elasticities for males (1.3 to 2.7), whereas estimated elasticities for females are small (0 to 0.9) and not statistically different from zero. These differences cannot be explained by gender differences in observed characteristics like age, education and experience. Instead, we provide suggestive evidence that they are partly explained by gender differences in job search preferences—particularly with regard to temporal flexibility—that tend to emerge around the time of parenthood.
DRAFT COMING SOONReallocating or Scaling Up? How Do Firms in the European Single Market Adjust to Tighter Extra-EU Supply?
with L. Maurin and P. Harasztosi
Abstract
How do firms adjust within an integrated market when external supply tightens? Using the EU's strategic dependencies and a triple-difference design over 2016–2024, we show that adjustment depends on available EU capacity. Where capacity exists, firms mainly reallocate existing supply within the Single Market, with little aggregate change and no new supplier relationships. Where capacity is constrained, suppliers instead expand total exports. A simple model rationalises this pecking order: integration facilitates reallocation first, while supply expansion occurs when existing capacity is insufficient.
Presented at: DG GROW Research Conference on the EU Single Market (03/2026)
DRAFT COMING SOONThe Impact of Unemployment Insurance on Workers' Labor Market Trajectories
with François Fontaine and Maxime Tô
Abstract
DRAFT COMING SOONThe French Unemployment Insurance System: Historical and Institutional Design, and Reform Dynamics
Abstract
DRAFT COMING SOONHow Long Should Unemployment Insurance Last? Evidence from a Large Reduction in Benefit Duration
Abstract
DRAFT COMING SOONDefining and Measuring Value-Chain Resilience
with Lionel Fontagné and Farid Toubal
Work in Progress
Artificial Intelligence and Job Search
Work in Progress
Unemployment Insurance, Retirement Incentives and Job Search
Work in Progress
Working While Receiving Unemployment Insurance
Policy & Other Publications
Reform of the Daily Reference Wage and Professional Trajectories
with François Fontaine and Maxime Tô · French Ministry of Labor · 2025
Abstract
This study evaluates the impact of the October 2021 reform to the French unemployment insurance system, which modified the computation of the daily reference wage. The reform reduced daily benefit amounts (0–10%) while extending potential benefit duration (up to +75%) for job seekers with fragmented careers, alternating periods of employment and non-employment. Using a difference-in-differences approach on administrative data, we exploit heterogeneity in exposure, measured by the share of non-employment time during the reference period. For the most affected individuals (50%+ non-employment), the reform lowered benefit levels, extended entitlements, and led to a 5–20% increase in employment days in the six months following unemployment entry. Employment-to-benefit elasticities range from −0.5 to −0.9. The reform reduced UI take-up by 2 percentage points but had no effect on contract type, wage, or mobility. It did not trigger substitution toward welfare transfers such as RSA, limiting its fiscal impact to the UI system. Among UI recipients, cumulative benefits declined by up to €1,000 over six months.
A Review of EU Trade Dependencies
EIB Investment Report 2024/2025 · 2025
Abstract
This contribution analyzes EU trade vulnerabilities since 2002 by identifying critical imported products and their role in value chains. Using the European Commission's method combined with Mejean and Rousseaux (2024), it documents increasing reliance on specific suppliers—especially China—while dependencies on the US and other countries have declined. The most critical products lie upstream, with 49% more than three stages from final use, amplifying the impact of disruptions. Vulnerabilities are concentrated in strategic sectors such as chemicals, metals, and ceramics, and persist over time: 41% of those observed pre-crisis remained just after, and 35% in later periods. While some concern low-risk consumer goods, others involve essential industrial inputs with systemic risks. The study calls for a balanced resilience strategy combining diversification, local production, and industrial coordination to secure supply chains without undermining trade efficiency.
Identifying European Trade Dependencies
with Isabelle Méjean · CEPR Paris Report 2 · 2024
Presented at: CEPII–Banque de France Competitiveness Seminar · Franco-German Fiscal Policy Seminar
Abstract
We review and extend existing approaches using product-level trade data to identify trade dependencies that expose the European Union to potential disruptions. While concentrated foreign sourcing is an important source of vulnerability, a comprehensive assessment must also account for the ability to substitute away from disrupted suppliers, both domestically and abroad. We develop a methodology that incorporates these substitution possibilities and use it to map European dependencies. We then combine these measures with geopolitical risk, upstreamness in value chains, critical products, and strategic green technologies, before discussing the policy instruments available to strengthen value-chain resilience.